BLUF
Superforecasters are ordinary people who hear a question and start thinking about why the seemingly obvious answer is probably wrong. They are almost immune to the biases that affect predictions from ‘experts’. The technique could indirectly improve military capability.Summary
Sam Glover writing in the Guardian, makes the following points:
- Scope insensitivity is when the same answers are given to questions that appear similar but require quite different calculations.
- Superforecasters are less prone to confirmation bias and overconfidence, which improves predictions.
- The British government has established a “Cosmic Bazaar” using superforecasting techniques to improve intelligence assessments.
- Superforecasters are being used to anticipate humanitarian crises.
- Superforecasters could make predictions more like a science than an art.
