Dr Andrew Carr: Thinking anew as our times are new
BLUFStatic grand strategy comprises strategic biases and assumptions and becomes outdated quickly in a dynamic world.
Using John Boyd's OODA loop, Dr Carr focuses on Observe and Orient to highlight why the hubris of grand strategy is the antithesis of agile thinking and a pathway to poor decision making. In a data heavy world that is further confounded by conflicting narratives and regional volatility, Boyd's Observation requires we seek out and analyse that which does not fit our assumptions, nor confirm our biases. Carr also proposes that any quantitative assessment derived from popular statistical analysis needs to be balanced with equal measures of qualitative analysis from historical events (point in case, Bill Gates' 2015 pandemic prediction). Carr's observations lead him to identify six unique issues for Australia that require shifting mental models fit for purpose, and not stale strategy, to understand the environment and Orientate towards an appropriate response. This cyclical approach to thinking and analysing will serve us better in the VUCA security environment we face in the Indo-Pacific.
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