BLUFRussia may capture parts of Ukraine and win a war, but it has already lost the peace, and the future peace will not be the same as before the invasion.
This article by Peter Layton in The Interpreter makes the following points:
- Russia tried and failed to impose regime change quickly.
- In Luhansk, Russia has a better military supply network than when attacking Belarus.
- Russia has unmotivated soldiers, poor logistics, poor battlefield intelligence, and mostly older equipment.
- It has lost the battle for Ukrainian hearts and minds.
- Many countries now see Russia as having a poorly performing military.
- The failure of Russian weaponry will reduce export sales.
- Europe is reducing its dependence on Russian energy.
- 2/3rds of NATO and the EU Countries have populations of 10 million or less.
- Countries such as India and Israel that have been ambivalent about supporting Ukraine may be forced by their people to be more supportive of Ukraine.
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References from the Web:
- MAY 2022 Russia’s Unlucky Past Has a Stranglehold on Its Future-Carnegie Endowment for international Peace. MAY 2022 The Ukraine War: Europe’s Critical Challenge-International Crisis Group
- JUN 2022 The Future Defederation of Russia- Moscow Times
- JUL 2022 The war in Ukraine shows it’s time for a new way to ensure security in Europe-the Conversation