Russia may capture parts of Ukraine and win a war, but it has already lost the peace, and the future peace will not be the same as before the invasion.


This article by Peter Layton in The Interpreter makes the following points:
  • Russia tried and failed to impose regime change quickly.
  • In Luhansk, Russia has a better military supply network than when attacking Belarus.
  • Russia has unmotivated soldiers, poor logistics, poor battlefield intelligence, and mostly older equipment. 
  • It has lost the battle for Ukrainian hearts and minds.
  • Many countries now see Russia as having a poorly performing military.
  • The failure of Russian weaponry will reduce export sales.
  • Europe is reducing its dependence on Russian energy.
  • 2/3rds of NATO and the EU Countries have populations of 10 million or less.
  • Countries such as India and Israel that have been ambivalent about supporting Ukraine may be forced by their people to be more supportive of Ukraine.


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    Source Information: Lowy Institute The