BLUF
If World War III happens, it is more likely to start with cyberattacks than an attack using military forces or weapons.Summary
What role would cyberwarfare play in a future conflict? This is one of the questions author John Storey examines in this article. The story begins by referencing the six-hour outage of Facebook and other social media platforms back in October 21. He describes the outage as happening in ‘mysterious circumstances. He also says that China sent 52 military aircraft into Taiwan’s air defence zone on the same day—the most significant and most provocative incursion yet. The article’s key points are:
Mysterious cyber outages like this could be the precursor to World War III.
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is likely to be the catalyst for the next major international war, and most pundits believe cyber warfare will play a significant role.
A cyberattack that knocks out the American media to hide or distract attention from a Chinese move against Taiwan is not unrealistic.
A major cyberattack might be so devastating that the victim-nation would likely feel a line had been crossed and consider it an overt act of war.
Cyberattacks could help an aggressor facilitate military operations (such as an invasion of Taiwan) by disrupting the other side’s communications, rendering its military hardware temporarily unable to respond.
In a drawn-out modern war, cyber operations will play a major part, and, therefore, conventional forces may no longer be able to rely on satellites.
The real danger of cyberwarfare is not that it will replace kinetic operations but that it will incite them.
If countries feel safer engaging in conflict behind the veil of anonymity provided by the Internet, the risk of catastrophic miscalculation increases.
References
Jul 2021 Reuters Biden: If U.S. has 'real shooting war' it could be result of cyber attacks
Oct 2021 Sky News World War III with China ‘possible’: Taiwan asks Australia for help
Dec 2021 Defence News US should expect cyberattacks in any struggle for Taiwan
