Most of us approach the new working year refreshed and motivated. Due to social pressure, vague aspiration or unrealistic scope, plans and goals unfortunately rapidly fade. Realistic and meaningful goals are more likely to succeed.

The toppling of Venezuela’s dictatorship by US military is a clear example of how military effects can be strategically limited. While the leadership was successfully extracted, any subsequent strategy for building legitimate governance is lacking.

Hybrid attacks across Europe eased in 2025, but this may be a pause—not a retreat. Shifts in negotiation prospects, better detection, and looming elections point to renewed pressure and influence efforts in 2026.

A new Chinese guided missile destroyer highlights steady gains in sensors and integration. This has boosted layered protection, strike reach, and coordination while signalling sustained industrial momentum and intent to operate confidently beyond home waters.

A distant raid still signals intent and priorities. How power is used, justified, and communicated shapes global behaviour, alliance choices, and risk appetite; with flow-on effects for regions far from the event itself.

Inflatable space habitats promise far more usable space from a single launch—reshaping how complex systems scale, adapt, and endure under constraint as legacy platforms retire and commercial actors take the lead.

Miniaturised sonar allows underwater drones to detect submarines without large platforms. This widens sensing coverage, cuts cost, and enables persistent monitoring—changing how underwater spaces are watched, protected, and contested.

Oil scarcity fears have shifted to demand uncertainty. Weak climate follow-through risks an abrupt supply peak, with the potential to leave governments exposed to volatile energy shocks, rising prices, and disruptive economic adjustment.

Large-scale drills signal intent through pressure and timing—testing responses, shaping perceptions, and raising regional risk. Meanwhile, economic ties and crisis channels remain strained under competing claims and external arms support.

Surveyed experts expect conflict risks to stay high in 2026. Middle East and Ukraine sit at the top. China–Taiwan and Russia–NATO remain high-consequence risks. The report also flags where early, practical prevention could still work.