BLUF
China’s rapid gains (including two advanced next-generation aircraft programs) reshaped regional expectations—revealing ambition, speed, and originality that many observers underestimated, with implications for balance, confidence, and long-held assumptions. China now leads innovation rather than following.Learning Outcomes
- Understand how fast capability growth can outpace long-held assessments and plans.
- Practise continuous reassessment when analysing competitors and emerging systems.
- Apply lessons on surprise to avoid complacency in force development and preparedness.
