BLUF

Manila’s ‘assertive transparency’ exposing Chinese aggression in the South China Sea has failed to deter Beijing. Instead, it risks escalation, tests U.S. credibility under the Mutual Defence Treaty, and highlights limits of reputation-based deterrence.

Learning Outcomes

  • Assess the effectiveness and risks of transparency-based deterrence in gray-zone maritime conflicts.
  • Examine how CCP regime legitimacy drives uncompromising South China Sea policies.
  • Identify complementary strategies—denial systems, maritime domain awareness, and lawfare—that strengthen deterrence beyond exposure.
READ: China’s Pushback Against the Philippines’ Maritime Strategy: The Limits of Transparency

References