BLUF

Prigozhin, Wagner Group's leader, withdrew from Ukraine, threatened Moscow, and criticized Russian corruption. After an agreement brokered by Belarusian President Lukashenko, he returned his forces to Ukraine. Despite challenging Russian leadership, a coup or Putin's power loss is unlikely. Prigozhin's move to Belarus and recent events will have enduring effects.

Summary

KEY POINTS:
  1. Initial chaos suggests a potential coup attempt.
  2. Prigozhin plans to disband Wagner's military company.
  3. Wagner was accused of human rights abuses in Mali.
  4. Uncertainty looms over Russia's future.
  5. Repression is expected to increase in Russia.

References