BLUF
Repeated pressure without consequence signals weakness. When hostile acts meet statements instead of costs, boundaries erode—encouraging bolder behaviour and shrinking strategic space, credibility, and freedom of action in an increasingly contested region.Learning Outcomes
- Understand how repeated accommodation can shape adversary behaviour and risk escalation.
- Recognise the role of imposed costs in maintaining credibility and freedom of action.
- Apply lessons on deterrence and signalling to policy advice, planning, and operational risk decisions.
