BLUF

Russia, in land area the world’s biggest country, could gain from global warming as agriculture becomes viable in Russia’s east.

Summary

Despite population differences, Russia and Australia’s economies are about the same. With Russia benefiting from climate warming, this may change. For Russia, its eastern areas may become available for agriculture. Simultaneously, those countries on a line roughly south along the US- Canadian border (China, Europe, India, USA) may become dryer resulting in lower agricultural yields. As the world warms, there could be a mass migration of people from dryer to cooler areas. USA per capita income might drop by a third and China by half. This may also upset the strategic balance as Russia will be able to spend more on its military and the US possibly less. Russia has an advantage as its military bases are also less affected by rising sea levels than the US. Melting Arctic sea ice also opens new shipping routes to Asia, Europe, and the US. Consider the implications for Australia of Russia once again becoming a major power.