BLUF

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made non-NATO nations Sweden and Finland rethink their security requirements, and both might decide to apply to join NATO.

Summary

This article by Carl Bildt, writing for ASPI, makes the following points:
  • Most European leaders played down US warnings about a Russian attack on Ukraine.
  • After years of dragging their feet, almost all European NATO members have aligned with the goal of spending at least 2% of GDP on defence.
  • In addition to increasing its military presence in member states such as Poland, NATO is likely to add Finland and Sweden to its ranks.
  • Before applying to join NATO, both Finland and Sweden need to ensure that most of their people will support such an application.
  • However, current trends make it likely that both Finland and Sweden will submit applications to join NATO before the NATO summit held in June 2022 in Madrid.

References

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Source: Strategist (ASPI)