BLUFThis article examines the implications of a yes vote in a referendum over New Caledonia becoming independent.
This article notes the following points regarding New Caledonia's upcoming referendum:
- New Caledonia is an overseas collectivity of France.
- There are deep divisions between its indigenous Kanak population and the, mainly locally born, Europeans over independence.
- Two referenda have been held with narrow majorities to stay part of France.
- A third and final is due before Oct 2022.
- Independence leaders have been unable to agree on a local government president forcing France to develop the local budget and increase its administrative role.
- Some local leaders met recently in Paris with the Overseas Territories Minister to discuss referendum mechanics.
Some potential implications of a 'Yes' vote are:
- Withdrawal of French funding, defence, justice, and law and order personnel;
- Loss of nationality rights.
- Need for a new currency and trade treaties.
- Loss of more than 10,000 French administration nationals.
The potential consequences of a 'no' vote include governance issues, sustainability and Kanaks wanting a greater share of the profits derived from its nickel mine.
- Dec 2020 The Runway No’ vote in New Caledonia independence referendum a pyrrhic victory for loyalists
- Dec 2020 The Strategist Protests over mining and independence hit New Caledonia
- Feb 2021 The Conversation Why New Caledonia’s instability is not just a problem for France
- Jun 2021 Aljazeera New Caledonia to hold third independence vote in December
- Jun 2021 France 24 French territory of New Caledonia to hold third independence referendum
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