Although there is potential for conflict over Taiwan and Ukraine—COVID 19 remains the prime source of international instability.


This article from the Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA) provides a strategic update for the region.

Potential Chinese takeover of Taiwan

  • The Chinese mainland and the Taiwanese west coast are about 160 kilometres apart. 
  • Fleet transit time is about 5 hours. 
  • Nuclear submarines are on constant patrol. 
  • Achieving surprise would be challenging. 
  • Resupply from the Middle East would be difficult as crude oil tankers need to pass through two major chokepoints.
  • The AIIA concludes that an invasion of Taiwan by China unlikely. 

Russia annexing more of Ukraine*

  • 120,000 Russian troops are on Ukraine’s Border. 
  • President Putin is unpredictable.
  • Ukrainian Forces are backed by NATO and are on alert.
  • Putin might attempt to grab inadequately defended territory. 
  • Putin wants to rejoin the G-8 return and a summit with Biden.

Other Strategic Flashpoints

*Latest news Time 29 Apr 21: Why Putin Flexed His Military Muscle on Ukraine’s Border