BLUFAlthough there is potential for conflict over Taiwan and Ukraine—COVID 19 remains the prime source of international instability.
This article from the Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA) provides a strategic update for the region.
Potential Chinese takeover of Taiwan
- The Chinese mainland and the Taiwanese west coast are about 160 kilometres apart.
- Fleet transit time is about 5 hours.
- Nuclear submarines are on constant patrol.
- Achieving surprise would be challenging.
- Resupply from the Middle East would be difficult as crude oil tankers need to pass through two major chokepoints.
- The AIIA concludes that an invasion of Taiwan by China unlikely.
Russia annexing more of Ukraine*
- 120,000 Russian troops are on Ukraine’s Border.
- President Putin is unpredictable.
- Ukrainian Forces are backed by NATO and are on alert.
- Putin might attempt to grab inadequately defended territory.
- Putin wants to rejoin the G-8 return and a summit with Biden.
Other Strategic Flashpoints
- Tigray region, Ethiopia
- Northern Ireland
- Afghanistan post 9/11
- Intensified vaccine wars
- Apr 2021 New York Post Russia sends fleet of warships into Black Sea as tensions rise with US, Ukraine
- Apr 2021 New Zealand Herald Australian official Michael Pezzullo warns 'drums of war' are beating with China
- Apr 2021 ABC News China says Australia must stick to 'One China' policy after Peter Dutton warns of conflict over Taiwan independence
- Apr 2021 ABC News Chief diplomat warns China wants Australia to compromise on key national interests to reset relations
- Apr 2021the Strategist Putin’s sound and fury
- Apr 2021 the Strategist China’s actions, not Australia’s words, are the problem