BLUF
Russia’s renewed airspace violations recall Turkey’s 2015 downing of a Russian jet, underscoring NATO’s dilemma—deter provocations decisively without escalating into conflict. Unlike 2015, NATO now shows greater unity, speed, and caution in its responses.Learning Outcomes:
- Analyse the operational and strategic consequences of Turkey’s 2015 shootdown for NATO cohesion, escalation management, and airspace control.
- Evaluate NATO’s evolving air policing and rapid response mechanisms to Russian incursions, including drones and manned aircraft.
- Assess implications for ADF/RAAF: balancing deterrence, escalation risk, and alliance solidarity in contested airspace operations.
