BLUF

Recognising cognitive biases can help you decipher information correctly and make—hopefully—better and more informed decisions.

Summary

An example of these types of biases are as follows: 
Suppose that: 
  • Ten people were at a party. 
  • Eight were vaccinated 
  • Two people caught Covid-19.
  • One of them was vaccinated. 
The base rate fallacy may have you thinking that one out of two ill people were vaccinated (50%). 
If you consider the base rate
  • One out of eight vaccinated people fell ill (12.5 %).
  • One out of two unvaccinated people fell ill (50%). 
  • You are four times more likely to become ill at this party if you’d been unvaccinated.
One type of cognitive bias is the likelihood of becoming ill from Covid-19 after vaccination. But, as vaccination rates increase, there will be more vaccinated and less unvaccinated people; therefore, the number of vaccinated people who fall sick will grow.
Being aware of these biases can help us avoid them.