Ukraine Conflict | The Runway

UPDATED 09 SEP 2024

The conflict in Ukraine is a complex and evolving situation with deep historical, political, and social roots. Here are eight key points that outline its main aspects:

Origins: The Ukraine conflict began in 2014 when Russia opposed Ukraine’s efforts to strengthen ties with the European Union, which led to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the rise of separatist movements in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Crimea Annexation: In March 2014, Russia annexed Crimea following a contested referendum, which was widely condemned by the international community and resulted in sanctions against Russia.
Eastern Conflict: After the annexation of Crimea, pro-Russian separatists in Eastern Ukraine declared independence, sparking continued fighting between Ukrainian forces and separatists, resulting in heavy casualties and ongoing instability.
International Role: Western nations, including the USA and European Union members, have supported Ukraine with economic, military, and humanitarian aid, while imposing sanctions on Russia. Russia continues to provide military and political backing to separatist groups in Eastern Ukraine.
Minsk Agreements: The 2014 and 2015 Minsk agreements, aimed at establishing a ceasefire and political resolution, have failed to achieve lasting peace due to ongoing violations from both sides.
Humanitarian Toll: The conflict has led to tens of thousands of deaths, widespread displacement of civilians, and extensive damage to infrastructure, severely affecting the availability of basic services such as healthcare, education, and housing.
Economic Impact: Ukraine’s economy has been significantly impacted by the conflict, with losses in key industrial regions, and an urgent need for reconstruction. Sanctions on Russia have also hit its economy, especially in sectors like energy and finance.
Escalation of Conflict: Following the large-scale invasion by Russia in February 2022, the war has intensified with devastating impacts. Efforts for a diplomatic solution continue, but the conflict shows no sign of resolution in the near future.

This summary provides a broad overview, and the situation on the ground can change rapidly. The conflict's complexities involve historical grievances, national sovereignty, geopolitical strategies, and the international community's role in seeking peace and stability in the region.

RUSSIAN-UKRAINE CONFLICT—ARTICLES UP TO MAY 2023

Strategic Influence

What I learnt about the future of war in Ukraine this week

This article discusses former Australian Army major-general Mick Ryan’s meeting with Ukraine’s head of military intelligence, Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov—and the three key lessons Budanov has learnt from Ukraine’s war with Russia.

Strategic Influence

How Russia will reassess its ties with North Korea after Ukraine

Russia's relationship with North Korea may transform after the war in Ukraine, becoming more selective in areas of cooperation. Post-war, Russia will prioritize restoring economic ties with the West, keeping Pyongyang as a backup option.

Strategic Influence

Did we learn anything from the war in Ukraine?

The author argues global stability depends on learning the right lessons—economic ties don’t prevent conflict, authoritarian states mobilise faster, and deterrence only works when backed by clear and credible consequences. Mass-produced weapons outperform expensive precision systems.

Strategic Influence

The key lessons Australia needs to learn from the Ukraine war

This article argues that while the Ukraine conflict offers insights into future warfare, Australia appears hesitant about applying its lessons.

Strategic Influence

NATO Chief Backs Ukraine's Invasion of Russia

This article examines NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg’s comments that Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region is a legitimate act of self-defence, highlighting NATO’s strong support for Ukraine’s right to defend itself.

Strategic Influence

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 7, 2024

Ukraine's incursion into Kursk disrupts Russian operations and impacts winter strategies. This assessment offers key insights on command issues and air defence challenges.

Strategic Influence

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 24, 2024

This analysis reveals evolving strategies and tactical shifts in the ongoing conflict, offering critical insights into current and future operations. Understanding these developments is vital for adapting leadership and strategic planning in dynamic, contested environments.

Air & Space Power

New missile hits old Russian ship

The Russian Navy's century-old Kommuna was recently damaged by missile fragments.

Strategic Influence

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 24, 2024

This analysis reveals evolving strategies and tactical shifts in the ongoing conflict, offering critical insights into current and future operations. Understanding these developments is vital for adapting leadership and strategic planning in dynamic, contested environments.

Strategic Influence

Ukraine Strikes Power Plant Near Moscow To End War And Putin’s Rule

This article discusses Ukraine's bold strategy of targeting critical infrastructure near Moscow, signalling an escalation aimed at crippling Russian power and destabilizing leadership, potentially reshaping the conflict's trajectory.

Air & Space Power

Ukraine’s F-16 Jets Intercept Russian Missiles in Apparent First

This article highlights the strategic impact of Ukraine's F-16 jets, demonstrating their role in intercepting Russian missiles, which marks a significant evolution in Ukraine’s defensive capabilities and underscores the growing importance of air power in modern conflicts.

Air & Space Power

Russia's MiG-35 Fighter 'Nightmare' Is A Sad Reality

This article asserts that although equipped with advanced radar and capable of carrying a variety of armaments, the MiG-35 is outmatched by the F-35 Lightning II, particularly in engine power and stealth capabilities.

Technology & Innovation

What Australia can learn from Ukraine’s long-range strike weapons

Australia’s 2024 National Defence Strategy emphasises developing long-range strike capabilities. Ukraine’s effective mix of high-end and indigenous weapons could be a model.

Strategic Influence

Was Ukraine’s incursion of Russia a tactical stroke of genius? It sent a strong message to Putin – and the West

This article argues the incursion is a big morale boost for a war-weary population, aiming to show Russians that the war has consequences for them too.

Air & Space Power

Ukrainian president says push into Russia's Kursk region is to create a buffer zone

Ukraine's recent military operation in Russia’s Kursk region seeks to establish a buffer zone, aiming to reduce Moscow's capacity for cross-border attacks. This strategy highlights Ukraine's focus on weakening Russian forces and disrupting supply lines.

Strategic Influence

Ukraine War: Kursk Offensive Has Taken the War Into Russia and Put Putin on the Back Foot – For Now

Ukraine's unexpected advance into Russia's Kursk region highlights strategic ingenuity, utilizing surprise and coordination to challenge Russian forces. This move could pressure Russia diplomatically, but the long-term impact remains uncertain.

Strategic Influence

Is Ukraine’s raid into Russia a ‘crossing the Delaware’ moment?

This article examines Ukraine’s audacious raid into Russia’s Kursk Province which captured enemy soldiers, destroyed equipment, and discomforted the Kremlin. Could this strategic success help turn the tide of this war like George Washington’s Delaware crossing did in 1776?

Strategic Influence

Poland, NATO Allies Launch Joint 'Eastern Aurora' Mission On Russia's Doorstep

This article examines the NATO air-defence operations reinforcing Polish airspace, which borders both Ukraine and Russia. The operation highlights the importance of allied monitoring of the airspace, with coordinated responses to any Russian violations.

Strategic Influence

The end of superpower conflict was ‘a fantasy era’. The West underestimated Russia and China – the cold wars are back

This article is a summary of David Sanger’s book ‘New Cold Wars” which shows how misplaced the West’s assumption that the US victory in the Cold War would bring about a permanent peace among the world’s nuclear superpowers.

Technology & Innovation

Air Force’s Cheap And Fast To Produce Long-Range Missile Is Being Built For Ukraine

The U.S. Air Force's development of the Extended Range Attack Munition (ERAM) aims to boost Ukraine's strike abilities and enable quick, scalable production of weapons, reinforcing a defence-centric approach to meet evolving strategic needs.

Strategic Influence

NATO to unveil Ukraine security package as bridge to membership

NATO's new security package aims to support Ukraine's defense and facilitate future membership.

Strategic Influence

Ukraine's ATACMS Wreak Havoc Deep Behind Russia's Lines

Ukraine is making good use of newly-supplied aid to target Russian troops, air-defence systems, aircraft and vessels.

Strategic Influence

Momentum 'Clearly' Building for NATO Troops in Ukraine

After more than two years of full-scale war in Ukraine, the French-led push for deeper involvement is making headway.

Strategic Influence

Russia is 'more dangerous' now than when it first invaded, former general reports after returning from Ukraine

Retired Australian Army Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan believes Ukraine needs to change its war strategy—drastically.

Strategic Influence

5,000 Iranian AK-47s seized from smugglers are now going to Ukraine

Weapons intercepted by US and allies en route to Iranian-backed Houthi militias in Yemen.

Air & Space Power

High maintenance 'prima donna' F-16 jets will be hard work for Ukraine, former US Marine pilot says

F-16s, being "sensitive" and "highly engineered," contrast with Ukraine's rugged, Soviet-era MiG jets.

Air & Space Power

Ukraine’s Drones Are Hunting Down Russia’s Best Fighter-Bombers At Their Base Deep Inside Russia

The Ukrainian military has moved to targeting Russian aircraft on the ground.

Strategic Influence

NATO Will Be Drawn Into War With Russia if Ukraine Loses: Lloyd Austin

U.S. Defense Secretary predicts more Putin aggression if Ukraine falls.

Strategic Influence

Su-34s Are Russia’s Best Precision Bombers. Which Is Why Ukraine Is Shooting Them Down—As Fast As It Can.

The Su-34s are vital to Russia’s war effort—and the loss of so many is a big problem for the Kremlin.

Technology & Innovation

Russia ups cash reward for capturing Estonian ground robot in Ukraine

Tracked Hybrid Modular Infantry System (THeMIS) is a light-tracked robot used to support Infantry operations.

Strategic Influence

Resource Page: Russo-Ukraine Conflict

Provides links to articles and books about the 2022 Russo-Ukraine Conflict.

Strategic Influence

Ukraine war: Three ways the conflict could go in 2024

Putin's political dominance suggests a prolonged Ukraine conflict with positions solidifying in 2024.

Ukraine’s IT army is a world first: here’s why it is an important part of the war

Ukraine's "IT army" has global hacker support in the nation's defence. Through social media channels, these volunteers conduct cyber-attacks on the Russian government and other prominent targets.

Strategic Influence

As long as it takes’: US Army doubles down on Ukraine training goals

Canadian and US officials are determined that NATO efforts to train Ukrainian forces will last long term—despite funding uncertainty.

Strategic Influence

Support for Israel has been decisive and real — a stark contrast to the West's grudging aid for Ukraine

While Israel received swift and significant aid, Ukraine continues to battle for international funding.

Technology & Innovation

Ukraine war inspires weapons that crack battle tanks at weakest point

The new weapons counter tanks by targeting their top vulnerabilities and deploy drones to shower infantry with metal fragments.

Technology & Innovation

Ukraine war inspires weapons that crack battle tanks at weakest point

The new weapons counter tanks by targeting their top vulnerabilities and deploy drones to shower infantry with metal fragments.

Air & Space Power

Why Ukraine is able to embarrass Russia's air defense systems, among the most advanced in the world, with small drones

Even though Russia primarily targets larger threats with its air defences, small Ukrainian drones often evade detection; Russia employs a three-tiered defence system.

Technology & Innovation

Landmines Threaten Agriculture In Ukraine And Azerbaijan but, Innovative Solutions Are On The Way

A Ukrainian farmer modified his tractor for demining, while Azerbaijan partnered with APOPO to use rats for efficient explosive detection.

Strategic Influence

How The War Could Make Ukraine A Defense Powerhouse – Analysis

The geopolitical landscape of Europe has changed in ways not seen in almost 80 years—and it’s all due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Technology & Innovation

Can expensive, American-made weapons like F-16s turn the tide in Ukraine’s war against Russia?

Despite the tanks, artillery and other equipment supplied by Western allies, the Ukrainian counteroffensive against Moscow’s invasion has stalled. This has left many wondering what else is needed.

Strategic Influence

Ukraine moves Christmas Day in snub to Russia

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has signed into law a parliamentary bill that moves its official Christmas Day state holiday from 7 January to 25 December, in a move to distance itself further from Russia.

Technology & Innovation

Ukraine doesn't have much of a navy, but it's found a way to hunt down the 'weakest links' in Russia's critical sea supply lanes, UK intel says

Ukraine uses USVs to challenge Russian ships in the Black Sea, providing a cost-effective advantage and straining Russian defences.

Technology & Innovation

Everyone Wants Ukraine’s Battlefield Data

The Ukraine conflict offers a chance for international tech and defense firms to collect valuable weapon and battlefield data to develop advanced weaponry. Ukraine seeks mutually beneficial cooperation in exchange for the data.

Strategic Influence

Putin Looks Embarrassed: New Russian T-14 Armata Pulled From Ukraine

Following combat battle trials of the Armatas in Ukraine, Russian state-media said ‘necessary trials’ of the tank would continue outside the sphere of war.

Strategic Influence

US announces $400 million in military aid for Ukraine

As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine endures, Western nations, such as the US, remain committed to supplying Ukraine with essential weaponry and support.

Strategic Influence

Air defense ammo, Strykers among latest weapons shipment to Ukraine

In its 43rd package, the US is set to supply 32 Stryker armoured personnel carriers, munitions for Patriot air defence systems, NASAMS, HIMARS, Stinger anti-aircraft systems, artillery and mortar rounds, TOW missiles, Javelin rockets, and additional equipment.

Strategic Influence

NATO allies offer Ukraine security assurances as Biden hits out at 'craven' Putin

REUTERS: President Zelenskiy is confident that Ukraine will join NATO after security stabilization. Biden supports this, while Russia critiques NATO's perceived Cold War tactics.

Strategic Influence

AUSTRALIA TO HELP PROTECT VITAL GATEWAY OF ASSISTANCE TO UKRAINE

The Australian government has announced its support for Ukraine in defending itself against Russia's invasion.

Technology & Innovation

Su-35: Putin’s ‘Best Fighter’ Jet In Ukraine Has Lots Of Problems

Russia's fourth-generation Su-35 fighter jets, presently deployed in its invasion of Ukraine, have attracted attention for all the wrong reasons.

Technology & Innovation

The Old MIM-23 Hawk Missile Is Doing Damage To Putin In Ukraine

The MIM-23 Hawk began its development phase more than 70 years ago; but it’s continuing to show its worth on the present-day battlefields in Ukraine.

Strategic Influence

Landmines, booby traps and tripwires — the hidden threats covering one-third of Ukraine

The article details Ukraine's immense landmine problem post-Russia's invasion. New 'smart mines' add complexity. Despite tech advances, decontamination may take decades.

Strategic Influence

How Wars Don’t End — Ukraine, Russia, and the Lessons of World War I

The war between Russia and Ukraine has not unfolded as expected. Despite Russia's superior resources and manpower, Ukraine has managed to resist the invasion. The war has become a protracted conflict, reminiscent of the trench warfare of World Wars I and II.

Strategic Influence

Biden: We won’t ‘make it easy’ for Ukraine to join NATO

President Biden said Ukraine must meet NATO standards, implying no easy path to alliance membership.

Strategic Influence

What is the long-term strategy for Ukraine’s Air Force?

In May, the US announced that it would assist in training and support the commitment of European allies to supply F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. However, the aging F-16s will need to be replaced within just a few years.

Strategic Influence

Why Western fighter jets are critical to Ukraine’s success—and how Australia could help

The war with Russia has significantly depleted Ukraine's air force. Additional fighters will assist Ukraine in defending its airspace.

Leadership is Ukraine's secret ingredient in war with Russia

Ukrainian civilian and military leaders listen to their subordinates, offering them a clear purpose, resources, guidance, and ongoing support.

Strategic Influence

Ukraine’s Hidden Advantage

Training provided to Ukrainian soldiers by European nations significantly enhances Ukraine's military capabilities in its conflict with Russia. This training, which focuses on advanced warfare tactics, is essential for Ukraine's success.

Strategic Influence

RUSSIAN-UKRAINE CONFLICT—ARTICLES UP TO MAY 2023

A collection of Runway posts about the Russian-Ukraine Conflict.

Technology & Innovation

Drones will not win the Russia-Ukraine war – analysis

Drones continue dominating news reports, but they aren’t used in large numbers or swarms. Technology has to improve for them to be really effective. Regarding technology, drones are more like WW1 biplanes than war-winning WW2 aircraft.

Strategic Influence

The key to Ukraine's counter-offensive: Breaching Russian lines

The Russian military has fortified its lines with trenches and minefields, demonstrating Moscow's concern about Ukraine's Spring offensive.

Strategic Influence

Norway Has Sent To Ukraine All-In-One Breaching Vehicles, Custom-Made For Breaking Through Russian Defenses

This Ingenious armored engineering vehicle uses the tracked hull of a Leopard 1 tank with a front-mounted bulldozer blade, a crane arm and an excavator bucket instead of the turret. It can hurl rope-like explosives to detonate mines and blast gaps.

Strategic Influence

Poland ready to deliver fighter jets to Ukraine, says president

Poland is ready to deliver its operational MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine as part of an international coalition. In addition, Poland was the first country to supply Ukraine with German Leopard tanks.

Strategic Influence

Ukraine Gets Huge Boost In Deadly Drone Capabilities From U.S.

The latest aid package includes anti-tank loitering munitions, long-range strike capabilities, and high-endurance vertical take-off drones.

Strategic Influence

Friends in Need: What the War in Ukraine Has Revealed About Alliances

NATO’s response offers real-world evidence of how contemporary alliances work against external aggression against a close neighbour—Ukraine—not a member of NATO.

Strategic Influence

Poland to send 60 modernised PT-91 tanks to Ukraine, in addition to Leopards

Poland is one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters among NATO members—and now that Germany has agreed to allow German-made Leopard Tanks to be sent to Ukraine, Poland is planning to send sixty of its Leopard tanks to Ukraine.

Technology & Innovation

Western tanks in the war in Ukraine: An overview of their role and tactical utility

To push back Russian forces, Ukraine is asking the West to supply heavy weapons, such as the German Leopard 2 battle tank.

Strategic Influence

Nordic nations may pool their growing military support to Ukraine

The Nordic nations—Sweden, Finland, Norway and Denmark—are considering coordinating weapon acquisition and distribution in support of Ukraine.

Strategic Influence

Global security leaders, activists say it’s time to fight, not talk, in Ukraine

The ‘fight, not talk’ message came from US and Western diplomats, officials and military leaders at the Halifax International Security Forum.

Strategic Influence

Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 269 of the invasion

Nine months after Russia’s invasion, Kyiv is facing a ‘complete shutdown’ of power because Russia has crippled the Ukrainian grid—war crimes investigators say hundreds of Ukrainians have also disappeared in Kherson.

Strategic Influence

With ‘bravery’ as its new brand, Ukraine is turning advertising into a weapon of war

Ukraine has launched an advertising campaign promoting 'bravery' as its brand—one of its aims is to maintain western support for Ukraine in its war with Russia.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict Holds Cyberwar Lessons – DARKReading

The writer of this article claims that the 2021 Russo–Ukraine conflict is the first example of a fully-fledged cyberwar.

Strategic Influence

What the Chinese Army Is Learning From Russia’s Ukraine War - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

A retired three-star US General, Charles Hooper, discusses how China learns from current conflicts, particularly the US role in such conflicts.

Military History

How Finland held off the Russians and won a moral victory—with lessons for Ukraine

In 1939 the Finns did not collapse when the Soviet Union invaded their country; despite overwhelming odds, the Finns put up spirited resistance— as a result, the Finns were able to remain an independent country.

Strategic Influence

Seven lessons from Ukraine for Australia’s defence organisation

The Strategist's Shoebridge thinks that if the Ukrainian military has upgraded its weapons capability in eight years—why does it take Australia so long to upgrade ADF weapon systems.

Strategic Influence

How the war in Ukraine could change history

There are plenty of known unkowns in Putin’s invasion of Ukraine but the national interest is to keep things from spiralling out of control. It’s difficult to establish a relationship with Russia due to a new strategic reality including cyber.

Cyber lessons in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Although there were cyberattacks on Ukrainian Government agencies and banks in February, the anticipated major cyber attack on Ukraine hasn’t occurred.

Strategic Influence

Beware the feel-good narrative being spun around Ukraine’s resistance

Russia is losing the propaganda war in its invasion of Ukraine, but there is a risk that we only see what we want to believe instead of what might actually be happening.

Strategic Influence

What Is China Learning from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine?

Having described Vladimir Putin as ‘my closest foreign colleague and my best confidant’, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has taken admiring note of Putin and his tactics. So will Putin’s invasion of Ukraine inspire Xi to make his own moves?

Strategic Influence

The hybrid war that began before Russia invaded Ukraine

This article argues that Russia has been fighting a hybrid war against Ukraine for the last eight years without the rest of the world showing any real concern.

Strategic Influence

What does Putin want in Ukraine? The conflict explained

CNN, a US network, provides an overview of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as of 25 Feb 2022.