Indo-Pacific Region | The Runway

KEY POINTS:

Vast Geographical Range: It spans from eastern Africa to the western Americas, including the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
Economic Hub: Home to major economies like Australia, India, and China, it's a global economic powerhouse.
Strategic Hotspot: Due to its location, it's a focal point for geopolitical competition and security concerns.
Critical Trade Routes: It hosts essential shipping lanes, facilitating global trade.
Cultural Diversity: Rich in languages, religions, and traditions, it's culturally vibrant.

Key Areas of Australian Engagement

Security and Defence
Australia works to:

Strengthen regional stability through partnerships and joint training
Support maritime security and freedom of navigation
Build defence cooperation through arrangements like AUKUS, the Quad, and bilateral ties with countries such as Japan, India, Indonesia, and Singapore
Contribute to disaster relief and humanitarian operations across the region

Diplomacy and Regional Institutions
Australia is active in:

ASEAN, which it treats as central to regional security
The Pacific Islands Forum, where Australia focuses on regional priorities such as climate, resilience, and economic development
Various forums like APEC, EAS, and the Indian Ocean Rim Association

Australia’s broader aim is to give smaller states space to make their own choices.

Economic and Trade Links
Australia supports:

Open trade, stable supply chains, and investment across the region
High-standard economic agreements like the CPTPP and RCEP
Development financing, especially for Pacific and Southeast Asian partners
Programs that build infrastructure, governance, and cyber resilience

Climate and Development Support
Australia plays a big role in:

Climate adaptation and resilience programs in the Pacific
Education partnerships, labour mobility schemes, and development assistance
Building long-term capacity across health, governance and disaster response

Technology and Emerging Capabilities
Australia works with regional partners on:

Cyber cooperation
Maritime domain awareness
Tackling disinformation
Responsible tech development
Science and research programs

3. Australia’s Underlying Aims
Australia’s approach is built around:

Respect for sovereignty
Rules-based behaviour
Partnership over pressure
A balance where no single state dominates

President and General Secretary of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam

Strategic Influence

To Lam comes to Australia, wanting to keep Vietnam’s options open

Vietnam is strengthening relationships while avoiding formal alignment — Australia offers economic, technological and regional opportunities that support Hanoi’s independence without requiring it to choose sides. Maritime cooperation could strengthen regional stability and awareness.

Strategic Influence

China missile test deepens Pacific divide over growing militarisation

The test has exposed divisions over regional security, with Pacific nations unable to jointly condemn it despite concerns about militarisation. It highlights tensions between maintaining peace and balancing security partnerships amid U.S.-China rivalry.

Strategic Influence

Taiwan military drills clear streets, slow internet in Taipei

The air raid and civil defence drills included temporary mobile internet throttling, as part of annual war games simulating a Chinese attack. Taiwanese military forces, meanwhile, practised anti-blockade operations and emergency response measures.

Strategic Influence

China pushes harder in South China Sea – as global attention drifts away

The expanding its presence in disputed South China Sea waters, challenges the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea as the primary framework for maritime governance, and raises concerns about the rules-based international order.

Containerised Data Centre

Artificial Intelligence

Australia’s chance to harness data centres for Pacific development

Artificial intelligence is becoming another arena for regional strategic competition. Australia's AI investment infrastructure could strengthen regional partnerships and capability — but only if environmental concerns, government influence and Pacific interests are built into long-term planning.

Minister for Defence and Prime Minister of Solomon Islands, the Hon. Matthew Wale,

Strategic Influence

Can We Have Peace in a Sea of Pacific Security Pacts?

Growing regional agreements should balance strategic interests with local priorities — lasting stability depends on addressing climate, governance and community concerns alongside broader security objectives. Papua New Guinea prioritises crime, corruption and community violence.

Air & Space Power

US Marines launch long-endurance spy drone from warship in South China Sea

The US Navy demonstrated ship-launched V-BAT uncrewed aircraft from the USS Portland, providing persistent ISR, GPS-denied operations, and beyond-horizon surveillance to enhance distributed maritime operations and situational awareness in contested Indo-Pacific environments.

Spartan Solomon Islands.

Strategic Influence

Solomon Islands Prime Minister Raises Pacific Security Pact Proposal During Australia Visit

PM Wale currently chairs the Pacific Islands Forum and advocates for stronger Pacific-led security arrangements, highlighting growing efforts to strengthen cooperation. Requires balancing external influence and regional priorities. China considered an unsuitable major security partner.

Two Poseidon aircraft from No. 92 Wing, Butterworth

Strategic Influence

Russian N-subs in the Pacific?

Russia has modernised its Pacific submarine fleet, despite the Ukraine conflict, complicating regional security. Russian submarines risk threatening undersea communications across Northeast Asia, while China remains Russia’s largest export market and strategic supporter.

Personnel from the Australian High Commission – Tonga, on board a Royal Australian Air Force C-27J Spartan aircraft during Operation Solania 25-2.

Strategic Influence

Defence helps Pacific partners fight illegal fishing

Illegal fishing costs Pacific nations heavily, but Australian-backed operations like Solania support Pacific-led surveillance, identifying suspect vessels and protecting marine resources against evolving threats such as misreporting catches and illicit transfers.

Strategic Influence

Australia in a disordered world

Australia faces a fractured global system where familiar guarantees are fading—navigating rising coercion, economic leverage and competing power centres now requires sharper choices, stronger partnerships and a clearer understanding of how prosperity and sovereignty are sustained.

Strategic Influence

Enhancing defence cooperation between Australia and India

Australia and India can deepen cooperation through shared maritime patrols, logistics access, and disaster response. Practical steps would lift trust, improve regional awareness, and reinforce stability across the Indo-Pacific as strategic pressure grows.

Military Management

Another lesson from Ukraine for Taiwan’s friends: the power of surveillance

Ukraine shows that timely surveillance enables decisive strikes. Persistent sensing, fast data fusion, and resilient networks decide when targets are most vulnerable—and failure to protect these systems risks losing the initiative in any high-end conflict.

Strategic Influence

Why North Korea is modernising its conventional arsenal

North Korea is rebuilding its conventional forces using Russian funding and battlefield lessons. This shift widens regional risk, adds non-nuclear pressure options, and points to faster arms competition shaped by modern warfare experience.

Strategic Influence

China raises the cost of Indonesia’s neutrality

China is steadily shaping Indonesia’s development choices—making neutrality harder to sustain—by linking growth, finance and political recognition in ways that quietly raise the cost of resisting Beijing’s core interests.

Strategic Influence

Postcard from Solomon Islands: The legacy of RAMSI

A long-running regional mission restored order but struggled to deliver lasting reform. Its mixed legacy shows why stability efforts need local ownership, clear limits, and honest expectations about what outside support can achieve over time.

HMAS Brisbane sunset flying operations during a regional presence deployment in the Indo-Pacific.

Strategic Influence

China Bets on Unmanned Stealth Bombers

China unveiled two large stealth unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), signalling a shift toward unmanned reconnaissance and long-range bomber roles, reflecting advances in autonomy and aeronautical design; potentially replacing the crewed H-20 bomber program.

Strategic Influence

Rethinking the Indo-Pacific as a single ocean system

The region works best when leaders see the Indo-Pacific as one connected ocean. Shared pressures demand cooperation. Climate change, competition and technology shape these waters. Connection offers stability and room for practical progress.

Chinese Navy sailors onboard PLA Navy Ship Sanya alongside South China Sea Fleet Navy Base in Zhanjiang.

Strategic Influence

How China Now Talks About NATO and Why It Matters for the Asia-Pacific

Since 2021, China’s rhetoric toward NATO has shifted sharply negative, portraying NATO as a U.S. 'hegemonic tool' exporting instability to Asia. The narrative is driven by alignment with Russia and broader ideological confrontation with the West.

Strategic Influence

Japan’s Taiwan move jolts Australia

Japan’s new stance on Taiwan signals it may act decisively, not just support. Australia, the author argues, must align planning, intelligence, and readiness with Japan and the US to strengthen collective deterrence in a more distributed Indo-Pacific.

Strategic Influence

Australia slips down Lowy Institute Asia Power Index that's still dominated by US and China

Asia’s power balance is shifting fast. China is closing the gap on the US. Australia has slipped beneath Russia despite many landmark deals-now sixth. Long-term influence depends on clear priorities, steady resources and real capability.

Communication & Cognition

Australians risk becoming “strangers in our own region”

Australia faces a sharp decline in Asian language and cultural knowledge — a gap that weakens national capability. The inquiry urges long-term investment, stronger pathways, and better use of diaspora skills to rebuild regional understanding.

Strategic Influence

Australia’s Indian Ocean Territories matter again in the digital age

The Territories are shifting into vital digital hubs as new data cables and infrastructure take shape—offering major connectivity benefits yet raising hard questions about access, logistics, and the impact on small communities.

Air & Space Power

Pilot killed as Indian Air Force Tejas crashes at Dubai Airshow

The Tejas is a supersonic, all-weather, multi-role light combat aircraft available in single and trainer versions. Its crash raised questions about safety at large airshows—clear communication and strong checks help reduce risk in fast-moving settings.

Strategic Influence

Meeting the Taiwan blockade threat

China’s growing power is shifting deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. The United States, Australia, Japan, and partners should rethink their strategies. Japan and the Philippines are central for access and support to Taiwan if a crisis breaks out.

Strategic Influence

Response to Chinese expansion

China’s rapid military-industrial expansion is reshaping deterrence across the Indo-Pacific. Effective stability now depends on frontline allies—especially Japan and the Philippines—working with partners to counter China’s scale.

Strategic Influence

Reflections from the Manila Dialogue

The Dialogue shows growing regional Philippines backing in the South China Sea—yet it also reveals the limits of relying on transparency alone to counter persistent Chinese pressure. Philippine Coast Guard campaign increases global awareness.

Strategic Influence

Australian strengthens regional defence ties

Australia is taking part in a Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA-Australia, Malaysia, NZ, Singapore, UK) exercise at Linton, NZ to strengthen trust, sharpen cooperation and collective responses to Indo-Pacific crises. Aims to reinforce regional stability.

Air & Space Power

Marines deploy Reaper drone unit to South China Sea

A temporary drone presence is helping a regional partner strengthen situational awareness in contested waters—offering steady support during a period of rising tension and frequent confrontations. The Reapers provide long-endurance surveillance capability.

Military Management

Preparing for when disaster and conflict converge

Growing climate shocks across the region highlight how resilience must link local readiness with national planning—ensuring communities can withstand disruption while keeping wider risks from escalating. Civil emergencies reveal gaps in national resilience.

Strategic Influence

ADF strengthens disaster management across Pacific

Australia is working with Pacific partners to lift disaster readiness. The activity builds stronger coordination, sharper response skills, and closer ties across the region—helping communities prepare for major emergencies together.

Strategic Influence

Australia’s strategic convergence with the Philippines

Australia’s defence relationship with the Philippines has deepened as exemplified by Exercise Alon 2025. Strategic convergence enhances deterrence against China, supports regional order, and offers opportunities for institutionalised cooperation, prepositioning, and multilateral interoperability in Southeast Asia.

Tonga from a Spartan Aircraft

Strategic Influence

Australia backs Pacific Islands facing China heat over Taiwan

Three Pacific states maintain ties with Taiwan. Pacific nations resisted pressure from Beijing to exclude Taiwan from regional talks, prompting Australia and New Zealand to defend the forum’s independence and urge respect for Pacific decision-making.

Ouen Toro National Park in New Caledonia.

Strategic Influence

How France’s political dramas threaten more instability in violence-wracked New Caledonia

Political turmoil in France is deepening New Caledonia’s instability—disrupting peace efforts, delaying autonomy agreements, and threatening fragile relations between pro-independence movements and Paris amid growing Pacific concern. Renewed unrest could reignite tensions.

Richard Marles and Fiji Prime Minister Sitiveni Ligamamada Rabuka

Strategic Influence

Fiji’s constructive engagement maximises partners, minimises risk

The flexible foreign policy prioritises autonomy and adaptability—engaging multiple partners to secure economic, environmental, and strategic benefits while avoiding entanglement in major power rivalries. Aligns with its National Security Strategy 2025–2029.

Singapore Air Force Fokker 50

Strategic Influence

Singapore PM Lawrence Wong signals 'shared interests' with Australia and desire to expand military ties.

Access to defence facilities in each country, defence technology cooperation, logistics, supply chains and an Australian presence in Singapore are all possible. Singapore comparably spends more than most other countries, including Australia, on Defence.

Hercules Guam Christmas drop

Strategic Influence

The US sees Pacific Islands as 'tip of the spear', but locals fear becoming China's 'bullseye'

Expanding US Micronesian presence brings both protection and unease—communities welcome security partnerships, yet worry about sovereignty and being drawn into conflict. Palau is one of three remaining Pacific nations with Taiwanese diplomatic ties.

Silkworm Chinese anti-ship missile, RAN Clearance Diving Museum

Strategic Influence

Ukraine’s lesson for Taiwan: build big, cheap and numerous cruise missiles

The US $500,000 Flamingos use re-purposed, older jet engines and basic guidance systems and could reshape Ukraine’s deep strike campaign targeting air bases, oil refineries etc. Taiwan would need rapid-scale production and political will.

F/A-18E Super Hornet, attached to the Dambusters of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 195, lands on the flight deck of the U.S. Navy’s only forward-deployed aircraft carrier, USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76), during flight operations in support of Talisman Sabre 23

Strategic Influence

Is the US really losing to China in Southeast Asia?

China holds broad regional influence while the US remains strong only in select partnerships—the Philippines and Singapore. Southeast Asian nations show multipolar dynamics, not a simple two-power contest. Australia’s strengths are diplomacy and defence.

Strategic Influence

Australia and Fiji to press ahead with security treaty talks as Vanuatu deal goes unsigned

Australia will advance security treaty talks with Fiji after a productive Pacific Islands Forum meeting, while its $500 million agreement with Vanuatu remains stalled amid sovereignty concerns and external pressure.

Strategic Influence

Southeast Asia’s evolving defence partnerships

Southeast Asia is diversifying defence partnerships amid US-China rivalry, engaging middle powers like Australia, Japan, India, and South Korea. These broader ties strengthen autonomy, resilience, and military capacity; shaping regional security balances and interoperability.

Strategic Influence

Taiwan to massively hike 2026 defence budget as US presses spending increase

Taiwan plans to raise its 2026 defence budget by 22.9 percent, in 2026. This increase responds to China's escalating military pressure and aligns with U.S. calls for Taiwan to bolster its defence capabilities.

HMS Prince of Wales arrives into the Port of Darwin, during Exercise Talisman Sabre 2025.

Strategic Influence

Why the United Kingdom and the Indo-Pacific Four should form a new Quintet

The author argues a forum for senior officials and/or elected leaders from Australia, Japan, NZ, South Korea and the UK meeting on an annual basis could enhance their influence, strengthen shared values, and build resilience.

An Australian Army soldier instructs members of the Royal Solomon Islands Police Force on navigation charts during the small boat package of Exercise Coastwatchers 2025, which was held in the Solomon Islands.

Strategic Influence

Friends to all: Solomon Islands juggles security partners in search of maximum support

Australia likely remains the preferred security partner choice but politicians balance multiple foreign nations for benefits. Australian aid aims to strengthen police capabilities in the Solomon’s; the security deal with China remains undisclosed.

Strategic Influence

The Taiwan scenarios 4: The catastrophe

This scenario models a catastrophic Indo-Pacific conflict triggered by a Taiwan crisis, involving rapid escalation, large-scale casualties, and severe economic disruption. It highlights the consequences of strategic miscalculation and breakdowns in deterrence.

Strategic Influence

Philippines, India Wind Up First Joint Naval Exercise in South China Sea

The Philippines and India completed their first joint naval drills in the South China Sea, including manoeuvring, communications, and air-defence operations. The exercise underscores expanding maritime cooperation outside US sphere.

A RAAF 35 Squadron C-27J Spartan aircraft comes in to land at Bauerfield International Airport, Port Vila, Vanuatu during Operation Rai Balang 2024.

Strategic Influence

Australia pays premium price for Pacific partnership

The new $500m agreement with Vanuatu highlights how smaller nations can reshape regional partnerships—leveraging climate priorities, mobility demands, and strategic competition—to secure significant concessions and long-term influence. Diplomatic sway has now shifted.

Strategic Influence

Timor-Leste and navigating the ASEAN Way

Myanmar’s junta objects to Timor-Leste joining the Association of Southeast Asian Nations due to perceived interference in their internal affairs. Membership hinges on mastering quiet diplomacy—balancing principled foreign policy with cultural sensitivity and subtle negotiation.

A United States Air Force KC-135 Stratotanker aircraft departs during Exercise Cope North 25, Andersen Air Force Base, Guam.

Strategic Influence

US Air Force hosts biggest-ever exercise in Pacific territory Guam, with experts saying China the focus.

The strategic drills highlight regional tensions—showcasing how distance, fuel limitations, and shifting priorities affect power projection and influence across a contested Indo-Pacific. Run alongside Talisman Sabre, over 12,000 personnel and 400 aircraft involved.

A Light Landing Craft (LLC) carrying two Bushmaster Protected Mobility Vehicles departs HMAS Canberra during a Wet and Dry Environmental Rehearsal (WADER) operation during Exercise Talisman Sabre 2025.

Communication & Cognition

Fear, honour, and miscalculation: War game lessons in the Indo-Pacific

Poor communication, cyber-attacks, misread intentions, and national pride can push even reluctant nations toward conflict—underscoring the urgency of clear signals, credible coordination, and emotional awareness in crisis planning. Simulations must stress-test emotional triggers.

Strategic Influence

Dispatch from Manila: A lesson in calling out Chinese maritime aggression

The Philippines is seeking international help on China by documenting and publicizing China’s aggressive actions. Manila also seems increasingly inclined to see its own security as connected to that of the broader region.

Aviators from No.35 Squadron and French Air and Space Force during a training exercise at Bundaberg Airport, Queensland.

Strategic Influence

Reframing the French Indo-Pacific: New Caledonia, How to Overcome the Geopolitical Impasse

Previous referendums revealed deep ethnic divisions. Instability challenges France’s Indo-Pacific strategy—resolving political deadlock will require genuine engagement that recognises local identities and longstanding tensions across a deeply divided electorate. Pacific leaders back Kanak self-determination.

Two Royal Thai Air Force JAS-39 Gripen C depart RAAF Base Darwin for sorties during Exercise Pitch Black 24.

Air & Space Power

Thailand to Spend $500 Million on New Swedish JAS 39 Gripen Jets

The E/F models will replace F-16 A/B’s and feature the Raven Active Electronically Scanned Array radar, data links, and Infra-Red Search and Track systems. The Philippines is expanding its fleet with Korean KAI F/A-50 Golden Eagle’s.

Indonesian Army soldiers (Tentara Nasional Indonesia) participating in a section attack at the Junior Officer Combat Instructor Training Course held in Tully, November 2024. Mid Caption:

Strategic Influence

The Logic of Neutrality in the Indo-Pacific

Some Indo-Pacific nations are actively using strategic ambiguity—balancing major powers while avoiding firm alignments—to maximise autonomy, bargaining power and, manage local risks. Modern neutrality is pragmatic, not ideological, enabling investment without full political alignment.

Strategic Influence

India’s Economic Growth Masks a Deeper Malaise

India with its recent economic growth attracts international attention, investment, trade and military ties. Australia is strategically turning towards the South Asia region. However, behind the growth lies massive inequality with a prospect of future internal unrest.

Strategic Influence

Despite US Disapproval, Europe Eyes a Greater Role in the Indo-Pacific

At the recent Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore, French President Emmanuel Macron used his keynote address to call for closer ties between European and Asian countries, to ally against what he called ‘spheres of coercion’.

No 1 Sqn FA18 F Sunset RAAF Darwin 2021

Strategic Influence

Australia overtakes China in the Pacific as America vacates the lane

Public perceptions reflect a shift in Pacific power dynamics—Australia is gaining influence through steady diplomacy and aid while US credibility weakens. China's assertiveness grows including expanding policing, security programs visa waivers and increased investment.

No 1 Expeditionary Health Squadron Role 2 Bravo capability.

Strategic Influence

In a world of entangled threats, the Indo-Pacific turns to resilience

Resilience includes cyber, supply chains, infrastructure, and ….public trust. A whole-of-government and society approach is now essential. Shared resilience efforts can strengthen regional stability. France is advocating coalitions of action and strategic autonomy.

Strategic Influence

Pacific Nations Struggle With Soaring Chinese Debt Repayments

Tonga, Vanuatu and Samoa have large Chinese debts- rarely forgiven. Rising repayment costs—linked to earlier loans—place pressure on budgets and test diplomatic ties and political stability. Australia supported Tonga with $85 million.

Commander Air Mobility Group, Air Commodore Bradley Clarke, CSC, OAM signs the sister squadron agreement alongside 1st Wing Commander Colonel Beny Aprianto, S.M

Strategic Influence

Indonesia is more important than ever: Australia must nurture the relationship

Indonesia’s BRICS (Brazil, Rusia, India, China, South Africa) alignment signals a broader global shift. Australia’s waning influence in Indonesia demands urgent, targeted engagement. AUKUS created long-term unease in Indonesia. Defence and diplomacy must work in tandem.

Chinese Navy sailors onboard PLA Navy Ship Sanya alongside South China Sea Fleet Navy Base in Zhanjiang.

Strategic Influence

Are America's Indo-Pacific Friends Flirting with China?

It appears so, but U.S. policy alone is not enough to produce a change—Beijing will have to capitalize on the emerging geopolitical inflection point if it wants to ensure a long-lasting shift.

Strategic Influence

ASEAN’s elusive code of conduct for the South China Sea

The South China Sea is a hotly contested area of geopolitical significance. For years, ASEAN and China have been slowly forging a path towards a peaceful resolution, but various issues continue to handicap the process.

French Naval Ship D’Entrecasteaux (foreground) and Australian Defence Vessel Reliant berthed at the International Wharf in Honiara.

Strategic Influence

Solomon Islands PM Avoids No Confidence Vote, But Is Potentially Weakened

The PM retained power after political defections, but ongoing instability could challenge regional planning ahead of a major international summit. Opposition movement led by former PM Sogavare who switched Government recognition from Taiwan to China.

A commemorative service is conducted onboard HMPNGS Gilbert Toropo at the location of HMAS AE1 off the coast of Rabaul in Papua New Guinea.

Strategic Influence

DOD building $400 million fuel storage facility in Papua New Guinea

The US is funding the 70 million gallon facility as part of growing military ties under a 2023 defence agreement that reflects the need for dispersed and resilient infrastructure. Manus Island naval facilities also under construction.

Air & Space Power

5-mile range: US deploys 6,000 rpm fire rate air defense system in Philippines

This marks a significant step in US-Philippine military cooperation. MADIS is a mobile short-range air defence system designed to protect U.S. Marines from air threats, including planes and helicopters, cruise missiles, and drones.

RAAF and Indonesian Air Force Herculese during Exercise Rajawali AUSINDO 24

Strategic Influence

Why on earth would Russia want a military base in Indonesia

Biak airbase is close to Darwin and Guam. Speculation over Russia’s interest has raised concerns—especially as shifting regional ties and Jakarta’s non-alignment could change how nearby nations manage strategic risks. Indonesia prioritises self-interest in partnerships

HMAS Anzac conducts Officer of the Watch Manoeuvres with Republic of Singapore Navy RSS Vigliance

Strategic Influence

A critical eye over the Republic of Singapore Navy

Singapore has one of the most efficient and innovative small naval forces in the world balancing offensive power, disaster relief and modern technology. Helicopters belong to Air Force, not Navy. Patrols deter Malacca Strait piracy.

Commander Integrated Area Defence System (IADS) Air Vice-Marshal Nathan Christie CSM speaks with Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA) and other ASEAN Nations’ Defence Attaches and diplomatic staff for Exercise Bersama

Military History

Asia without America? History shows Australia can be confident shaping regional security

Australia took the lead in the Five Power Defence Arrangements-Aust, NZ, UK, Singapore and Malaysia showing we have the history, partnerships and capability to shape regional stability—especially when global powers are focused elsewhere.

Strategic Influence

Australia Can Take USAID’s Place in the Pacific Islands

With rising regional needs and fading U.S. presence, Australia has both the trust and tools to step up and provide meaningful support—before others take that space. Aid must align with local climate concerns.

Australian Army soldiers and an Australian Army M1A1 Abrams Main Battle Tank from the 2nd Cavalry Regiment, move in land after an amphibious assault during Exercise Keris Woomera 2024 at Banongan Beach, Indonesia.

Strategic Influence

Climate risks to security in the Indo-Pacific: Indonesia in 2035

Australia may have underestimated the effects of climate change on Indonesian economy and security interests. Severe food insecurity, widespread population displacement, and slow economic growth are ways that Indonesia may experience climate disruptions.

Strategic Influence

Indonesia–Australia Defence Cooperation Under Prabowo

Australia is Indonesia’s second-most important defence partner. Building a strong partnership requires trust—addressing historical concerns including Timor Leste and perceived Australian support for separatists important. Maritime security and defence industry collaboration a shared priority.

Strategic Influence

Italy can play a role in the Indo-Pacific—but must do it its own way

Italy is a major European power and recognizes the importance of security in the Indo-Pacific; but it needs to play its part in a way that makes use of its specific military expertise and capabilities.

Communication & Cognition

It’s Time for the ADF to Train in Asia-Pacific Languages

Australia’s defence partnerships rely on trust—language and cultural fluency are essential. Shifting the focus to regional languages like Tok Pisin and Bahasa would improve engagement and operational effectiveness.

Australian Army officer Lieutenant Kaleb Booth conducts a tour of HMAS Adelaide during a Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) workshop as part of Indo-Pacific Endeavour 2024 in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Strategic Influence

How Australia is advancing gender equality in the Indo-Pacific

DFAT has released the International Gender Equality Strategy aimed at strengthening relationships in the Indo-Pacific region; specifically focussing on gender considerations during humanitarian and climate assistance, as well as promoting inclusive trade and economic equality.

Strategic Influence

How U.S.-Russia-China Ties Would Impact the Indo-Pacific

The Trump administration is seeking improved relations with China and Russia. US allies like Japan and South Korea may express some deep concerns, while many Southeast Asian countries would be cautiously optimistic.

Technology & Innovation

New Zealand Conducts Inaugural Penguin Firing

A Royal New Zealand Air Force Seasprite helicopter fired the missile which replaces Mavericks in the helicopter-borne anti-ship role- enhancing maritime strike capability and supporting international security operations in the Middle East.

Strategic Influence

New Zealand’s Trouble in Paradise

China’s growing ties with Kiribati and the Cook Islands challenge New Zealand’s confrontational Pacific diplomacy and risk straining regional relations. However, Australia has managed to maintain trust with its Pacific neighbors despite similar challenges.

Strategic Influence

In its Indo-Pacific strategy, France should engage more with Pacific islanders

France is revising its strategy—currently defence-industry focused—to prioritise local concerns, especially human security: rights, health, and prosperity over US-China rivalry. A new Australia-France cooperation roadmap was signed in 2023.

Strategic Influence

To “protect-and-project” – A call for Australian land power in the Indo-Pacific

The author argues that effectively integrating land power can safeguard Australian national interests. Land control is physical, psychological, and symbolic. Littoral manoeuvre, amphibious operations and long-range land strikes are vital.

Strategic Influence

Indonesia needs to improve its seabed warfare capability

Indonesia’s dependence on underwater infrastructure makes it vulnerable to sabotage, impacting the region. Its defence capabilities remain limited for its size. Increased training, global cooperation, and multinational seabed warfare exercises are essential for security.

Communication & Cognition

The Pacific Disinformation Playbook

This article highlights how disinformation threatens Pacific communities, with 80% online. It erodes trust in science and government, spreading quickly through networks. Culturally tailored, community-driven solutions are needed to protect information integrity.

Strategic Influence

Australia considers allowing Pacific Island residents to join defence force

The proposal is aimed to help boost the number of Australian Defence Force personnel.

Strategic Influence

Australia considers allowing Pacific Island residents to join defence force

The proposal is aimed to help boost the number of Australian Defence Force personnel.

Strategic Influence

Bill urges Pentagon to speed JADC2 transition in focus on Indo-Pacific

The bill is to ensure the Department of Defense prioritizes the Combined Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC).

Locals from the Meni Choir Group sing together to welcome participants of Pacific Partnership 2023 and locals at a Women’s Networking Workshop during Pacific Partnership 2023 at Sir Michael Thomas Somare Stadium, Wewak, Papua New Guinea.

Communication & Cognition

New study highlights barriers to engaging Pacific men supporting women’s leadership

In the Pacific, words like ‘feminism’ could provoke resistance towards gender equality; article suggests leveraging cultural values such as cooperation to promote positive change

Strategic Influence

LINKS TO ARTICLES ABOUT: CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON PACIFIC ISLAND NATIONS

Climate change significantly affects Pacific Island nations, threatening ecosystems, livelihoods, and cultural heritage.

A string of Papua New Guinea flags hang in front of a building

Strategic Influence

One Step Forward, Two Steps Back: Women’s Political Representation in the Pacific

Progress for women’s political participation and leadership within the Pacific has been slow despite an appetite for change

Strategic Influence

How are global powers engaging with the Pacific? And who is most effective? These 5 maps provide a glimpse

Australia, New Zealand, the US, France, the UK, and Japan are reengaging with the Pacific Islands, but better clarity and coordination are required.

Strategic Influence

How are global powers engaging with the Pacific? And who is most effective? These 5 maps provide a glimpse

Australia, New Zealand, the US, France, the UK, and Japan are reengaging with the Pacific Islands, but better clarity and coordination are required.

Strategic Influence

Both the US and Australia are adamant the Pacific “matters”. But only one is really moving the dial.

The US, with a focus on climate change, fisheries, and security, signed a security agreement with PNG, where their regional military presence surpasses that of China, countering Chinese influence.

Strategic Influence

2023 Pacific Aid Map Reveals Chinese Aid in Retreat

China's aid to the Pacific has decreased and is now strategically directed to enhance its influence in the region.

Strategic Influence

Fiji PM Sitiveni Rabuka calls for 'Zone of Peace' in the Pacific in Canberra speech

The "Zone" aims to mitigate US-China competition. Mr. Rabuka also pursued stronger ties with Australia and New Zealand, signifying a departure from contentious Chinese agreements.

Strategic Influence

Fiji PM Sitiveni Rabuka calls for 'Zone of Peace' in the Pacific in Canberra speech

The "Zone" aims to mitigate US-China competition. Mr. Rabuka also pursued stronger ties with Australia and New Zealand, signifying a departure from contentious Chinese agreements.

Strategic Influence

US warns it will defend Philippines after Chinese vessels incidents

Under a 1951 treaty, Washington is obligated to defend the Philippines if the forces, vessels, or aircraft of the Philippines come under attack in the disputed waters.

Strategic Influence

What's behind Vietnam's worsening sex ratio imbalance?

Vietnam is grappling with a significant gender imbalance due to cultural norms and recent policies.

Military History

RAN in the Pacific War

The Royal Australian Navy (RAN) was vital in supporting Allied forces during WW2, which involved sinking enemy submarines, supporting land operations and providing vitally important convoy escorts.

Strategic Influence

Women on the Frontlines of Pacific Peacebuilding

The text discusses the significant role Pacific women play in peacebuilding efforts and emphasizes the importance of recognizing and supporting their contributions to realize a peaceful Pacific region.

Strategic Influence

Why Women Matter to Peace and Security in the Indo-Pacific

The United States Institute of Peace (USIP) emphasizes gender-inclusive policies for security and peace in the Indo-Pacific. A panel discussion with U.S. INDOPACOM members highlighted progress and strategies for gender-inclusive security operations.

Military History

Air Power Saved South Vietnam in 1972, But Couldn't Win the War

This article discusses how airpower, specifically the U.S. Air Force and Navy, played a critical role in saving South Vietnam during the Easter Offensive of 1972.

Where has New Zealand’s women, peace and security agenda gone?

New Zealand's women, peace and security agenda has stalled since the first National Action Plan expired in 2019. Despite positive progress, the lack of a new plan risks NZ falling behind other countries in the region and missing out on important opportunities.

Strategic Influence

Singapore Commits To F-35B Stealth Jets With Follow-On Order

The city-state will purchase another eight F-35B short take-off and vertical landing jets as its armed forces continue their modernization drive.

Strategic Influence

‘Hodgepodge of tech’: What makes Indonesia’s naval buildup vulnerable?

Its Minimum Essential Force plan calls for a 274-ship green-water fleet, ten fighter squadrons and 12 new diesel-electric submarines.

Strategic Influence

India faces deepening demographic divide as it prepares to overtake China as the world’s most populous country

In 2023, India's population will be greater than China's—but most of India's future population growth will be within its much poorer northern states, whereas in its wealthier southern states, its population will be getting older.

Strategic Influence

U.S. and South Korean militaries launch biggest-ever air drills

Operation Vigilant Storm will involve US and South Korean air forces flying 1,600 sorties, including close air support, defensive counter air, and emergency air operations 24 hours a day.

Strategic Influence

China Has Lost India

Despite regular high-level meetings, increased Chinese investment in India, defence exchanges and multilateral coordination, the appearance of business-as-usual obscures real disagreements between the two countries.

Strategic Influence

When will India become an upper-middle-income country like China? Unlikely for 25 years

India's current gross national income means the World Bank classifies it as a lower middle-income country (MIC)---however; it might take 25 years of sustained growth before it becomes an upper MIC such as China .

Strategic Influence

South Korea, U.S., Japan stage anti-submarine drills amid North Korea tension

The drills were held in international waters off the Korean peninsula's east coast, just a day after North Korea fired two ballistic missiles into the sea off its east coast, and US Vice President Kamala Harris visited Seoul.

Strategic Influence

Commentary: How F-35B fighter jets can boost Singapore’s air defence amid upcoming Paya Lebar Air Base move

Air power is an integral part of Singapore's defence strategy, and the acquisition of the F-35B should significantly increase Singapore's air power capability.

Strategic Influence

South Korea, Japan discuss goals at Australia’s Pitch Black exercise

Australia's unrestricted airspace was a drawcard for South Korean and Japanese air forces aircraft, enabling them to practise air-to-air and air-to-ground missions whilst improving interoperability in large force scenarios.

Strategic Influence

If India and China were friends, Asia would be more developed. But they are not

For more than 70 years, China has been a major concern for the Indian security establishment. There are valid reasons for this concern, including the humiliating Indian defeat in 1962, which continues to haunt the country.

Strategic Influence

Quad Summit to focus on key challenges, ways to keep Indo-Pacific free and open

Differences between India and the other members of Quad – Australia, Japan and the US on the Ukraine conflict are unlikely to hinder growing military and economic cooperation.

Strategic Influence

How South Korea's new president could shake up the region

South Korea's new president-elect Yoon Suk Yeol won the election by less than one percentage point—in his campaign, he promised to take a tougher stance with North Korea.

Australian Defence Force personnel march down Swanston Street towards the Shrine of Remembrance during the Anzac Day 2022 parade in Melbourne.

Strategic Influence

Defence to grow to largest size since Vietnam War, increasing by nearly 20,000 people by 2040

With global instability worsening—thanks to Russia and China, in particular—Australia will increase the number of uniformed Defence personnel to almost 80,000 personnel.

Papua New Guinea Defence Force soldiers from 2nd Battalion, Royal Pacific Islands Regiment, salute during a parade at Moem Barracks in Wewak, Papua New Guinea.

Strategic Influence

Pacific Islands Forum's head to be replaced, FSM President David Panuelo says, after leadership dispute

This article argues that the proposed withdrawal of Micronesian States from the Pacific Islands Forum has been delayed until June 2022 to allow consensus to be reached on the Secretary General position.

HMAS Canberra conducts a Live Fire Exercise while sailing back to Australian waters after the successful completion of Indo-Pacific Endeavour 21.

Strategic Influence

Southeast Asia Matters To Australia

While Southeast Asia has been a foreign policy priority for Australia since the 1940s, Australia still has ample room to grow its engagement with the region.

Royal Australian Air Force airwoman, Sergeant Danina Johnson, from No. 10 Squadron, operates camera equipment onboard an AP-3C Orion Maritime Patrol Aircraft during a surveillance mission as part of Operation Argos.

Strategic Influence

North Korea Confirms Test Launch Of Ballistic Missile Capable Of Hitting Guam (20 Feb)

North Korea has test-launched a ballistic missile capable of reaching Guam ending North Korea's self-imposed prohibition on testing nuclear weapons and long-range missiles--tensions between North Korea and the U.S. and South Korea continue to grow.

A Tentara Nasional Indonesia (TNI) (Indonesian National Armed Forces) C-130H aircraft carrying TNI members, who assisted during Operation Bushfire Assist, takes-off from RAAF Base Richmond.

Strategic Influence

Indonesia standing between great powers

This article argues that non-aligned Indonesia will continue a middle course between the US and China because it doesn’t want to alienate either.

Members from the Australia's Federation Guard march on for a ceremonial sunset during the Royal Australian Navy Sea Power Conference as part of Indo Pacific 2022 held in Sydney, New South Wales.

Strategic Influence

Where next for EU security policy in the Asia-Pacific?

The European Union is committed to more involvement in the Indo-Pacific, considering economic, capability and geopolitical constraints.

A partially eroded mine alongside a jungle path in the Torokina District of Bougainville, where international Explosive Ordnance Disposal experts are taking part in Operation RENDER SAFE 14.

Strategic Influence

It will really poke the panda’: New Zealand’s defence document breaks new ground on China

For the first time, New Zealand openly identifies China as a serious threat to New Zealand's interests.

Coordinator Rescue Forces, Commander Chris Unwin, RAN and Rescue Element Coordinator, Lieutenant Commander Guy Burton talk about the Communications Station on the bridge of MV Stoker with Lieutenant Commander Nguyen Thanh Tung from the Vietnam People’s Navy (left), Commander Shahrul Adi Nor Basha ( centre right) and Lieutenant Commander Salsabil Paujah Ismail from the Royal Malaysian Navy during Exercise Black Carillon 21

Japan, Vietnam Look to Cyber Defense Against China

Japan and Vietnam are working together to ensure they are prepared to counter the growing number of cyberattacks; many of these attacks appear to originate from China.

(l-r) Chief of the Defence Force General Angus Campbell AO, DSC, Secretary of Defence Greg Moriarty and Prime Minister of Australia the Honourable Scott Morrison MP, during a press conference to announce the AUKUS alliance and nuclear submarine acquisition at Parliament House, Canberra.

Strategic Influence

Australia can count on Vietnam to support AUKUS

Despite Vietnam’s apparent neutrality regarding AUKUS, the reality is that Vietnam is quietly supportive of anything likely to maintain the continuity of the international rules-based order.

United Nations Secretary General, António Guterres, viewing islands of the South West Pacific nation of Tuvalu from the ramp of a No. 35 Squadron C-27J Spartan.

Technology & Innovation

Australia-Indonesia and Climate Change.

By making our renewable energy expertise available to Indonesia, Australia has a unique opportunity to enhance our vital relationship with Indonesia.

A C-130J Hercules makes a night landing at Lord Howe Island during aircrew night-time training circuits at the island’s airfield.

Strategic Influence

AUKUS can strengthen India’s strategic autonomy

AUKUS provides India with the opportunity to get a better deal from its military hardware suppliers and perhaps acquire previously restricted technology from the US.

Student from the Efogi Community gifted a Papua New Guinea and Australia Partnership football by the Australian Defence Force, in Papua New Guinea.

Strategic Influence

PNG and Fiji were both facing COVID catastrophes. Why has one vaccine rollout surged and the other stalled?

Strong leadership and public support have enabled Fiji to achieve nearly complete vaccination against Covid-19; however, misleading social media and untrustworthy politicians has left PNG with a very low vaccination rate.

Chief of Australian Joint Operations Command, Lieutenant General Greg Bilton (centre right), AO, CSC, talks with Republic of Korea Army officer Colonel Seo Jeong-Wook (centre left), Commander of 6th Artillery Brigade, after watching a display of the K-9 Thunder 155mm self-propelled artillery vehicle during a visit to visit to 6th Artillery Brigade in South Korea

Strategic Influence

Ministerial meetings show deepening ties between Australia and South Korea

Australia’s close relationship with the Republic of Korea has just gotten closer following the 2021 meeting between defence and foreign affairs ministers.

ADF member prepares a needle for a patient by removing any air bubbles in the needle

The world is desperate for new antibiotics, and New Zealand’s unique fungi look promising

With antibiotics becoming increasingly resistant to infections, New Zealand's biodiversity might provide a solution.

US and Australian flags

Strategic Influence

ANZUS at 70: ANZUS and New Zealand

If directly attacked, and in the South Pacific, Australia can expect strong New Zealand support but not necessarily in conflicts in Southeast Asia or Papua New Guinea.

Indonesian Navy officers listen to a United States Navy sailor talk about the amphibious capabilities of the USS Ashland during a tour of the ship while alongside in Darwin, Northern Territory, as part of Exercise Crocodile Response 2022.

Strategic Influence

After years in planning, US gets serious about strategic dialogue with Indonesia.

The US giving priority to its relationship with Indonesia, which is good news for Australia.

Chief of the Australian Defence Force, General Angus Campbell, AO, DSC, welcomes Air Marshal Kevin Short (left), Chief of the New Zealand Defence Force, to Russell Offices in Canberra.

Strategic Influence

Australia and New Zealand should help their island neighbours get into space

This ASPI article argues that Australia and New Zealand should be helping their Pacific neighbours to access space capabilities.

A makeshift cenotaph constructed for personnel from the Australian Defence Force, Fiji Military Forces, New Zealand Defence Force, Australian Federal Police, and Royal Solomon Islands Police Force, to commemorate Anzac Day in Honiara, Solomon Islands.

Strategic Influence

New Zealand’s re-elected Labour government shows it has less appetite for geopolitics

The strongly pro-defence New Zealand First Party losing all of its seats at the last election might result in domestic issues taking priority over defence.

Chief of the Maritime Staff, Japan Maritime Self Defence Force, Admiral Ryo Sakai meets with delegates at the welcome breakfast for the Indo Pacific 2022 conference in Sydney.

Strategic Influence

Australia's Pacific step-up and the Quad

Australia, India, Japan and the US need to work together to maximise development for Pacific Island Nations for mutual strategic and economic benefit.

Australian Army soldier Lance Corporal Chris Cigana from the Australian Defence Force Cyber Gap Program competes in the 'capture the flag' cyber skills challenge in Canberra from 24 to 30 May 2021.

Strategic Influence

Declassification of secret document reveals US strategy in the Indo-Pacific

The recently declassified (Jan 2021) US policy document on the Indo-Pacific shows the importance that the US attaches to the views of Australia, Japan and India.

Royal Australian Navy sailor Leading Seaman Aircrewman Peta Large looks out on USS Fitzgerald during cross-deck landing operations as part of Exercise Milan 2022 in the Bay of Bengal.

Strategic Influence

Britain tilts towards the Indo-Pacific

After leaving the EU, the UK intends to increase its defence spending and among other things, focus on the Indo-Pacific Region.

A Royal Australian Navy MH-60R Seahawk helicopter lands on HMAS Arunta as part of ongoing training activities during a regional presence deployment.

Strategic Influence

Avoiding a “lost decade” in the Pacific

Being remote has protected the Pacific from the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic—however, the economic damage has been severe.

Members of the Isurava community and Papua New Guinea Defence Force farewell the Australian delgation after a visit to the Isurava memorial during the Anzac Day 2022 commemorations in Papua New Guinea.

Strategic Influence

Germany plans a greater peace and security role in the Indo-Pacific

Germany, the EU and NATO have expressed an interest in developing closer defence cooperation ties with Australia.

Royal Australian Air Force Squadron Leader Robert Crawford reviews a map displaying the location of known fishing vessels during a brief held at the Forum Fisheries Agency, Regional Fisheries Surveillance Centre in Honiara, Solomon Islands, as part of Operation Solania.

Strategic Influence

RCEP Will Redraw the Economic and Strategic Map of the Indo-Pacific

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RECP), that includes China, could have significant strategic implications for our region.

The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) ship JSS ISE is seen from above while in company with HMAS Anzac.

Strategic Influence

Ocean horizons: Strengthening maritime security in Indo-Pacific island states

Australia needs a whole of government approach to improving regional maritime security.

Australian Army loadmaster Corporal Drew Smith looks out towards Nomuka Island, Tonga, during a CH-47F Chinook helicopter reconnaissance flight to survey damage in support of Operation Tonga Assist 2022.

Strategic Influence

Climate and Security in the Indo-Asia Pacific

Climate change must be a security priority for the Indo-Asia Pacific region.

Dr Charles Edel at the Strategy and the Future of War Conference held at ADFA, Canberra.

Air & Space Power

APC 2020 Dr Charles Edel: Great Powers and Regional Dynamics of the Indo-Pacific

The US-led rules-based order is not facing an ideological struggle, it is facing a multi-layered, compounding series of threats.

Strategic Influence

Amid Escalating Tension With China, Australia and India Strengthen Partnership

Australia wants a stronger relationship with India which could produce greater security, diplomatic and trade cooperation.

Royal Australian Navy frigate HMAS Arunta sails in company with Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer JS Yuudachi (rear) and United States Navy destroyer USS Momsen (centre) while conducting trilateral naval exercises through the South China Sea.

Strategic Influence

Enhancing Forward Defense: The Role of Allies and Partners in the Indo-Pacific

The US needs to engage in new ways with its Indo-Pacific Allies to maintain regional stability.